In the next few months, the American media (and the Guardian US toolbar) will become inundated with speculation about the results of the November 4th midterm elections. Because most of my readership is English or European, a lot of people might not know the process or significance of these elections.
Who gets elected? What does it even mean for the US government? What does midterm even mean?
The USA has a few lot of elections: presidential, congressional, mayoral, gubernatorial, state legislature, school governors, and in some states, even judicial. In November there will not only be federal midterm elections, which elect the whole House and a third of the Senate, but 46 state legislature and 36 gubernatorial (state governors) elections.
The national midterms are undoubtedly the most important for the nation however. They are the elections for the legislature, which come around every two years – on the same year as a Presidential election (where they are not deemed ‘midterms’), and mid-way through a President’s four year term: hence the term, midterm! The provisions for these elections are set out in the United States Constitution (only for federal elections, state election processes are set by the states), that the President must be re-elected every four years in November. No Presidential election has ever been missed, even during war!
The congressional midterm processes are also set out in the Constitution, and encompass both the Senate and the House of Representative. The whole House is up for re-election every two years, with 435 congressmen and women up for re-election. The House of Representatives forms the population based chamber in Congress: the Constitution makes no provision for the size of the House except for that each Congressman/woman should represent no more than 30,000 people.
The Senate is a little bit different; there are only 100 Senators, two for each state, elected for six year terms. These Senators are re-elected in thirds every two years alongside the whole House of Representatives. This year, 33 out of the 100 will be up for election. Both Houses are dominated by the two-party system the United States has fostered, with the Republicans currently holding a majority in the House, and the Democrats forming the majority in the Senate. There are only two Independent Senators – Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and Angus King of Maine – who regularly ally themselves with the Democratic Party.
The midterms are extremely important for gauging public opinion and how well a President has done since their election or re-election, through tracking the shift from Democrat to Republican, or vice versa. Everyone, regardless of party, will be hoping for a Congress that has a majority of the same party in each chamber; President Obama will obviously be hoping for the Democrats to hold onto the Senate and to regain the House.
If he doesn’t get that wish, and the Republican Party end up with a majority across the legislature, his personal political platform in the run up to the 2016 election will be in jeopardy. A Republican Congress would arguably override any vetoes (though only with a 2/3 majority), refuse to pass proposed legislation, and refuse to approve the budget – in short, gridlock. This is a common problem in the US because the separation of powers (legislative, executive and judiciary) means unlike the UK, a different party can be in the White House to who has a majority in Congress.
Current opinion polls and political experts suggest the Republican Party could just edge a victory in the Senate – Obama’s worst nightmare – with eight key seats going to the polls this November 4th. It does however, give the Democrats something to really fight for in the next four and a half months.
Over the next few weeks I will be looking at the demographics of these ‘too close to call’ Senate seats, and tackling any key issues that might swing the states in either party’s favour. I will be, as always, answering any questions anyone might have – if you have one either ask in the comment section or contact me on Twitter at @emilythompson92.
...and don't even get me started on the Tea Party 